That’s exactly why I put this together.

I went through over 100+ names, picked the best ones and broke down the levels I’m actually watching — not just zones to throw on a chart, but the reasoning behind each one. Large caps, growth names, crypto. The whole picture. Because knowing a level without understanding why it matters is basically useless. You’ll second guess it the moment price gets there.

So take your time with this. Go through each name. Understand the structure. And when price eventually gets to these areas — and it will — you’ll already know what you’re looking for.

Let’s get into it.

Stock Watchlist & Key Levels — Long-Term Buying Zones

Rather than just sharing zones, I want to share the why behind each one — because that’s the whole point. Not hand-holding, but giving you the information and confidence to make your own decisions.

Quick framework before we dive in: my two main long-term investment moving averages are the 50-week SMA and 200-week SMA. Those are my anchors. Strong stocks respect them. And I will be using Fibonacci when needed. When price pulls back to test them, that’s when I get interested

( At the end of this I've also put together a clean visual summary of every name we covered — current price, and the exact dip buying zones all in one place. Save it, screenshot it, pin it wherever you keep your watchlist. That way when the market starts moving and things get hectic, you're not scrambling through notes trying to remember levels. It's all right there. )

NVDA

Nvidia is testing the 50-week SMA right now. That’s always my first go-to on strong stocks — it’s where I look to buy dips. And while that level is worth watching, if I’m being honest about where I’d feel most confident putting money to work, it’s $150.

Here’s why that level stands out. It’s the prior resistance going back to November 2024 — old resistance that flips into new support. That’s textbook. On top of that, $150 also lines up with a key Fibonacci retracement level. When price, horizontal structure, and Fibonacci all agree on the same spot, you pay attention.

We’re already down about 20% off the highs, so we’re officially in correction territory. Nothing stops you from taking an initial position now and adding more if it reaches $150 — which would be another 10-12% lower from here. I highly doubt Nvidia tests the 200-week SMA, so somewhere between here and $150 is the zone to be working with.

MSFT

Microsoft has been in a serious decline since October — down 24% from the highs. That’s not a correction anymore, that’s bear market territory for the stock. And here’s the red flag: Microsoft just closed below its 200-week SMA for the first time in 15 years. That’s not something you brush off.

That said, big companies like Microsoft don’t disappear. We saw Meta go through a brutal multi-year decline and then 5X from the bottom. The same opportunity can present itself here for patient investors.

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Markets just delivered their fifth consecutive down week - the longest losing streak in four years. Monday’s massive peace rally on Trump’s Iran deal hopes completely reversed by Friday. The Dow entered correction territory, Nasdaq sank deeper into its own correction, and sentiment reached extreme fear levels not seen since late 2025.

Below, I’m sharing:

• Specific support and resistance levels on S&P 500 and QQQ

• My breadth terminal readings and what they’re signaling for timing

• The VIX spike setup I’m watching to scale back in

• Where I’d be a serious buyer if we get there

So lets dive in first with a recap:

1. U.S. Macro and Fed

The Iran war narrative dominated everything this week, creating one of the most volatile trading weeks of 2026. Monday started with euphoria - President Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had “very good and productive conversations” and announced a 5-day halt to strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. Dow futures spiked over 1,100 points, oil crashed 10%, and hope surged.

By Friday, all of that optimism had evaporated. Trump extended the negotiation deadline, but concrete progress remained elusive. Markets gave back every penny of Monday’s gains and then some. The reality check: diplomatic statements don’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and oil supply disruptions remain severe.

Oil prices told the story. WTI briefly hit $100 per barrel on Friday before settling at $99.64, up 5.46% for the day. Brent crude climbed 4.22% to $112.57. Despite Monday’s 10% crash, oil finished the week higher as traders realized supply constraints aren’t going away quickly. The IEA continues coordinating strategic reserve releases, but it’s not enough to offset the Hormuz closure and Iraq’s force majeure declaration.

Gasoline prices remain elevated - the national average hasn’t come down meaningfully from the $3.80+ range. That’s feeding directly into consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, complicating an already difficult backdrop for the Fed.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.41% by week’s end, the highest since late July 2025. Rising yields in this environment signal growing stagflation concerns - simultaneously worried about slowing growth and accelerating inflation. The Fed’s next move remains on hold, but the probability of any 2026 rate cuts has essentially vanished according to futures markets.

2. U.S. Equity Performance

Five consecutive down weeks - the longest losing streak since early 2022. The S&P 500 fell 2.1% for the week, closing at 6,368.85, a seven-month low. QQQ dropped 3.3% to 562.58, now almost 13% below its October highs and firmly in correction territory. The Dow lost 0.9% to close at 45,166.64, crossing into correction as well - down over 10% from recent highs.

Monday was wild. The Dow jumped 631 points to close at 46,208, up 1.38%. The S&P gained 1.15% and QQQ rose 1.38% on Trump’s Iran peace announcement. At the highs of the day, the Dow was up over 1,100 points and all three major indices were up more than 2%. Oil plunged 10%, and traders piled into risk assets.

Then reality set in. Tuesday through Thursday saw choppy, range-bound action as optimism faded. Friday delivered the knockout punch - S&P fell 1.67%, QQQ dropped 2.15%, and the Dow lost 1.73% (793 points). Not only did markets give back all of Monday’s gains, they finished the week lower than where they started.

The Russell 2000 bucked the trend somewhat, actually closing the week slightly green - a surprising show of relative strength while large caps got hammered. Small caps haven’t been immune to the selloff, but they outperformed this week.

Breadth deterioration accelerated. Only 48% of S&P 500 members are trading above their 200-day moving averages now. QQQ breadth hit the lowest levels since 2023 at 35.5%. This isn’t a narrow selloff concentrated in a few sectors - it’s broad-based liquidation.

3. Global Developments and War Front

The Iran war continues with no clear path to resolution despite Monday’s brief diplomatic optimism. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with maritime traffic down approximately 95%. Iran launched “Operation True Promise 4” this week - successive waves of missile strikes targeting Israeli positions and U.S. military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.

Trump’s Monday announcement that the U.S. had held “very good and productive” talks with Iran and would pause strikes for five days sent oil crashing and markets soaring. By Friday, he extended the deadline but concrete progress remained elusive. The rhetoric hasn’t matched reality on the ground.

Iraq’s force majeure on all oilfields remains in effect. Qatar’s LNG facilities stay shut. The IEA continues coordinating strategic petroleum reserve releases from member nations, but the scale of supply disruption overwhelms these efforts. Global oil markets remain severely constrained.

Oil prices whipsawed violently. Monday saw WTI plunge over 10% to $88.13 and Brent fall nearly 11% to $99.94 on peace hopes. By Friday, WTI was back at $99.64 (briefly touching $100) and Brent hit $112.57. The week-over-week change showed oil higher despite Monday’s crash - a clear signal that supply concerns trump diplomatic statements.

Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia remain elevated on LNG supply concerns, though U.S. Henry Hub prices have been relatively stable given domestic market dynamics. The energy shock is creating genuine stagflationary pressures - rising energy costs alongside slowing economic growth.

4. Cross-Asset Signals for U.S. Stocks

Gold continued its correction, trading in the $4,400-4,500 range for most of the week. The precious metal hasn’t found its footing yet despite geopolitical chaos - a clear sign that liquidation pressures and rising real yields are overwhelming safe-haven demand. Silver held around $67-68, still well off recent highs.

The gold selloff stands in stark contrast to what traditional safe-haven behavior would suggest. With war raging, oil spiking, and stagflation concerns mounting, gold should theoretically be catching a bid. Instead, it’s been liquidated. This reflects several dynamics: speculative money exiting after the hawkish Fed message two weeks ago, rising real yields making gold less attractive, and forced selling from leveraged positions.

Bitcoin had a rough week. Started around $71,000 and finished near $66,000 - down approximately 6.9% for the week. The cryptocurrency faced a massive $14.16 billion options expiration and heavy derivative liquidations exceeding $885 million across multiple days. Institutional flows turned negative, with BlackRock’s IBIT seeing $201.5 million in outflows on March 27 alone. BTC has now dropped about 48% from its late 2025 peak above $126,000.

Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets remains intact. When equities sold off Friday, BTC followed. The cryptocurrency hasn’t decoupled or acted as a safe haven - it’s trading like a high-beta tech stock. The Fear & Greed Index for crypto sits at 13, matching readings from the deepest capitulation phases of previous cycles.

The 10-year Treasury yield’s climb to 4.41% reflects stagflation concerns. Typically, war and uncertainty drive yields lower as investors seek safety in bonds. Instead, yields are rising because traders are pricing in persistent inflation from energy shocks and reduced rate-cut probability. The yield curve has flattened further as 2-year yields climbed more than longer-dated bonds.

Credit markets showed stress. Regional bank stocks remain under pressure, and the spread between investment-grade and high-yield debt has widened. Financials were among the worst-performing sectors this week, reflecting concerns about credit quality and economic slowdown.

The dollar index strengthened modestly, benefiting from its safe-haven status relative to other currencies more exposed to the energy shock. A stronger dollar typically pressures commodities, which explains part of gold’s weakness despite the war.

5. Market Internals and Sentiment

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Markets just delivered four consecutive down weeks - the longest losing streak since March 2025. The Fed turned hawkish, gold got demolished in its worst week in decades, sentiment cratered to extremes, and all major indices broke below their 200-day moving averages. This is the kind of washout that historically sets up significant turning points.

I’m making this week’s full analysis free for everyone. If you find value in this breakdown, share it with someone who’d benefit from the weekly format and drop a comment below - takes 30 seconds and helps this reach more people who actually want unbiased market analysis.

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Here’s what happened, what it means, and the levels that matter heading into next week.

1. U.S. Macro and Fed

The Fed delivered its March 17-18 decision and the message was clear - don’t expect much help this year. Rates were held at 3.50-3.75% as expected, but the updated dot plot showed meaningful erosion in rate-cut support. While the median still pencils in one cut for 2026, the distribution shifted notably - seven of 19 participants now expect zero cuts this year, up from six in December. Several members moved from expecting two cuts down to just one.

The inflation forecast was revised higher to 2.7% for both headline and core PCE, up from 2.5% in December. Powell acknowledged the Iran war’s impact on oil prices but framed it as a transitory shock, similar to how the Fed views tariff effects - a one-time price level increase that should fade. The problem? Inflation has been above target for five straight years, which complicates the Fed’s ability to look through temporary spikes.

Powell’s press conference reinforced the cautious stance. His key quote: “The forecast is that we will be making progress on inflation, not as much as we hoped, but some progress on inflation.” That’s not exactly a dovish message. He refused to rule out rate hikes if conditions deteriorate further, though he stressed that’s not the base case.

Market reaction was swift - stocks sold off to session lows as Powell spoke, with the Dow dropping over 600 points intraday. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.39%, up roughly 11 basis points for the week, as traders priced in a higher-for-longer rate environment. Futures markets now assign near-zero probability to any 2026 rate cuts.

On gasoline, the national average hit $3.84 per gallon as of March 18, up from around $2.98 before the war started - a 92-cent surge in less than three weeks. That’s the kind of inflation shock that shows up immediately in consumer sentiment and could feed into broader price pressures if sustained.

2. U.S. Equity Performance

Four consecutive down weeks - something we haven’t seen since March 2025. The S&P 500 fell just over 2% for the week, closing at 6,506 on Friday after a brutal 1.51% drop. QQQ lost 2%, finishing at 582.06 after falling 2.01% on Friday. The Dow shed roughly 2% for the week, closing at 45,577.

Friday’s session was particularly ugly. The S&P dropped to a new 2026 low and now sits firmly below key technical support levels. QQQ fell to six-month lows, breaking decisively below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May 2025. The Russell 2000 officially entered correction territory, down more than 10% from recent highs.

Thursday’s post-FOMC sell-off set the tone - the Dow fell 768 points (1.63%), the S&P dropped 1.36%, and QQQ declined 1.46%. Markets initially tried to stabilize on Friday morning but rolled over hard into the close as Powell’s “not as much progress as we hoped” comments continued to resonate and oil prices pushed higher following Iraq’s force majeure declaration.

All three major indices are now trading below their respective 200-day moving averages - a technical breakdown that hasn’t occurred across the board since early 2024. Breadth continues to deteriorate, with only 48% of S&P 500 members now trading above their 200-day SMAs, down from over 50% just a week ago. QQQ breadth hit the lowest levels since 2023 at 35.5%.

3. Global Developments and War Front

The Iran war entered its fourth week with no sign of resolution. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with maritime traffic down approximately 95%. Iraq declared force majeure on all oilfields during the week, removing another major supply source from global markets. Qatar’s LNG facilities remain shut, compounding energy supply concerns.

Oil prices showed extreme volatility during the week. Brent crude hit an intraday high of $119 - levels not seen since 2008 - before pulling back sharply to close the week at $98. WTI similarly spiked to $112 intraday before settling at $97 by Friday’s close. The whipsaw price action reflected both escalating supply concerns and coordinated strategic reserve releases. The Defense Department announced additional strikes late in the week, indicating no near-term de-escalation. The IEA’s reserve releases provided temporary relief but haven’t fundamentally changed the supply-demand imbalance.

The geopolitical situation deteriorated further when new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei hardened his stance on keeping the Hormuz strait closed. This represented a notable shift from earlier in the month when there were brief hopes for negotiation. Israeli forces continued systematic targeting of Iranian leadership and infrastructure.

Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia surged on LNG supply concerns, though U.S. Henry Hub prices have been relatively insulated given already-high utilization rates at export terminals. The energy shock is creating stagflationary pressures globally - rising prices alongside slowing growth - though Powell explicitly rejected the “stagflation” label for the U.S. economy.

4. Cross-Asset Signals for U.S. Stocks

Gold suffered its worst weekly performance in decades, plunging approximately 9% to close around $4,575-4,625 depending on the contract. This wasn’t a safe-haven move - it was liquidation. Silver fell even harder, dropping over 10% for the week. The precious metals complex got crushed as real yields surged and the dollar strengthened following the hawkish Fed message.

Gold’s collapse stands in stark contrast to its earlier 2026 rally. The metal peaked above $5,400 in late February before the current correction began. The selloff accelerated after the FOMC meeting as traders digested higher real rates and reduced rate-cut expectations. The gold-silver ratio widened to approximately 64.6, with silver’s dual exposure to both industrial demand concerns and speculative unwinding amplifying its decline.

Bitcoin showed resilience relative to both equities and gold. After starting the week around $73,700, BTC pulled back to approximately $68,900 by Friday but held above the critical $66,000-70,000 range that has provided support in recent weeks. The 200-week simple moving average continues to act as a floor around $58,000. However, the 9-week EMA near $75,000 provided resistance and rejected the bounce attempt - confirming the downtrend remains intact.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped roughly 11 basis points for the week to 4.39%, reflecting reduced rate-cut expectations and persistent inflation concerns. The yield curve showed some flattening as 2-year yields rose about 15 basis points to 3.88% while 30-year yields increased only 3 basis points to 4.95%. This flattening typically signals slower growth expectations.

The dollar index strengthened to 99.46, up 0.40% on Friday and positive for the week. A stronger dollar typically pressures commodities and emerging markets while supporting large-cap U.S. equities - though that latter relationship hasn’t held during this downturn.

Credit markets showed stress. The IEI/HYG ratio ticked higher as investors rotated toward safer credit, and regional bank stocks dropped approximately 7% over several days. Financials were among the worst-performing sectors, raising concerns about stress in private credit markets.

5. Market Internals, Sentiment & Seasonality

Retail investor sentiment deteriorated sharply. AAII’s latest survey (week ending March 18) showed bullish sentiment at just 30.4%, down from 31.9% the prior week. Neutral sentiment collapsed to 17.6% from 21.7%, while bearish sentiment surged to 52.0% from 46.4%.

The bull-bear spread now stands at -21.6%, down 7.1 percentage points from the prior week’s -14.5%. This marks the sixth consecutive week below the 6.5% historical average. Retail investors are increasingly pessimistic, with bears now outnumbering bulls by more than 20 percentage points - a significant sentiment extreme.

Professional money managers showed even more dramatic positioning changes. The NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 60.24 (week ending March 18) from 66.99 the prior week. This represents the lowest reading since last spring and sits well below the Q4 2025 average of 92.26. Active managers have now cut equity exposure by over 30 percentage points from year-end levels.

The combination is notable - both retail investors (AAII) and professional managers (NAAIM) are cutting exposure and turning bearish simultaneously. This represents genuine capitulation rather than just one group getting defensive. Asset managers dumped record quantities of S&P 500 futures during the week, exceeding even the liquidation seen in March 2020.

The Fear & Greed Index plunged into extreme fear territory. VIX jumped 11.31% on Friday to close at 26.78, though it had pulled back slightly from intraday highs above 27.50. The NYMO (NYSE McClellan Oscillator) reached extremely oversold levels similar to a year ago, which historically precedes sharp snapback rallies.

Market breadth continued its relentless decline. Only 48.3% of S&P 500 members are now trading above their 200-day SMAs, down from 50.8% the prior week. QQQ breadth collapsed to 35.5% from 37.4% - the lowest since 2023. Russell 2000 breadth fell to 47.0% from 49.6%. This deterioration reflects genuine broad-based selling rather than narrow weakness.

6. Key Takeaways

• Four consecutive losing weeks with all major indices breaking below their 200-day moving averages and the Russell 2000 entering official correction territory.

• Fed signaled higher-for-longer with inflation forecast raised to 2.7%, seven participants now expecting zero 2026 cuts, and Powell acknowledging slower progress on inflation than hoped.

• Gold suffered its worst weekly loss in decades, plunging 9% as real yields surged and rate-cut expectations evaporated - silver down over 10%.

• Sentiment reached extreme pessimism with AAII bull-bear spread at -21.6% (sixth week below historical average) and NAAIM dropping to 60.24 (lowest since last spring, 32 points below Q4 average).

• Oil showed extreme volatility with Brent spiking to $119 intraday (highest since 2008) before closing the week at $98, and WTI hitting $112 before settling at $97 - creating stagflationary pressures that complicate Fed policy.

7. Next Week’s Key Catalysts

Economic Data:

• Thursday: Jobless Claims (main data catalyst for the week)

• Light calendar otherwise allows market to focus on technical levels and war developments

Geopolitical:

• Iran war developments and Strait of Hormuz situation remain the dominant narrative

• Any signs of negotiation or further escalation could drive sharp moves in both directions

• Oil supply situation and strategic reserve release coordination

Technical:

• S&P 500 defending 50-week SMA becomes critical - loss of this level historically leads to deeper corrections

• Nasdaq testing 50-week SMA support around 574

• Breadth divergences and extreme oversold conditions set up potential for snapback rally if catalysts align

Market Structure:

• March options expiration historically volatile

• Institutional positioning extremely light per NAAIM

• Sentiment extremes similar to past washout lows that preceded rebounds

8. Technical Chart Review

Last week was another down week. S&P 500 closed just over 2% lower and just like that we now have four consecutive red weeks - something we last saw in March of last year and before that in September 2023. S&P 500 also came back down to test the 50-week SMA. NASDAQ followed the same script, closing down 2% and approaching its own 50-week SMA as well. Russell 2000 was weak across the board. Crypto saw a bounce but got rejected right at the 9-week EMA - couldn’t hold it.

Overall it’s a hit and run tape. Up one day, down the next. FOMO doesn’t really exist in this environment and that’s actually a good thing to remind yourself of.

On the sector front - Energy was the only real leadership. Everything else was down or flat. Utilities and Materials were the biggest laggards. On the industry side - Oil & Gas led. Gold Miners took a significant hit, down about 14% last week. That’s actually something worth noting - we’ve been pointing out for months that sector rotation would eventually push energy up the rankings and push gold lower and that’s exactly what’s playing out now.

I took a very tactical approach last week - quick on taking profits, then re-adding the same positions the next day at a deeper discount. That worked out. Heading into this week I’m still sitting on quite a bit of cash. Some of those positions came back near break-even after I took profits and I decided I’d rather take a small paper cut than watch a green position turn red. I can always revisit them this week. That’s the whole point of progressive exposure - you don’t assume, you manage risk and add as the setup confirms.

What Matters This Week

The war narrative hasn’t changed - it’s still news-driven and the levels I’ll share below are what matter depending on which direction that news pushes things. On the economic calendar, the only thing worth flagging is Jobless Claims on Thursday. That will be the main data catalyst this week.

Index Review

S&P 500 / SPY

Last week we bounced toward the 21-week EMA and got a bad rejection - price came right back down into the 50-week SMA. That level is critical. On the weekly timeframe the 50 SMA is always the first real line of defense and losing it is where things start getting genuinely painful. We saw that play out in March 2025, April 2022, February 2020, and December 2018. So you get the message.

If S&P 500 loses the 50-week SMA, the next meaningful target is the February 2025 highs around 613. I know that sounds like a lot but a 5% pullback is completely normal - it just feels dramatic because we’ve gotten used to a market that only goes up. That 613 area is actually where I’d start showing real interest in longer-term positions.

Short-term - if we hold above 650, a bounce toward 665-668 and possibly 670 is in play. Above that, the 21-day EMA at 672 is the level to clear. Get above that and the 680s come into view. A lot needs to happen for that to play out but it’s good to know the map. On the way down, 640 and then 625 are the bounce levels to watch if selling continues.

NASDAQ / QQQ

Right near the 50-week SMA as well - strong support at 574. Below that, 555 has been a level members have known about for months and that’s where I’d start scaling into longer-term positions. Further down, the February 2025 highs around 540 are on the map, and 520 below that would be a genuine golden buying zone.

A quick note on framing - if you’re a swing trader and if you’re a long-term investor, you’re looking at these levels differently. Don’t mix the two timeframes. Long-term investors aren’t trying to pick the exact bottom - the goal is to start scaling in at attractive prices and two to three years from now everyone buying at these levels will be happy they did.

On the snapback side - 600 is the first level to watch, which also aligns with the 21-day EMA. Above that, 611 and the declining 55-day SMA would be the next resistance to monitor.

Russell 2000 / IWM

Playing out exactly as expected. IWM ran into the 270 Fibonacci target, got rejected, and has been pulling back toward the 230-240 support zone. The 50-week SMA is nearby and that’s a level worth respecting. Already down about 10% from recent highs - a little more downside from here could set up a very clean snapback rally level.

Breadth & Internals

Breadth fired a sell signal few weeks ago and is still declining - not much has changed there. That said, we are approaching some real sentiment extremes. Fear & Greed is in extreme fear territory, AAII exposure is down, and technicals are getting oversold. That combination historically sets up a snapback - possibly a little more selling first, then a bounce. The support and resistance levels above are your map for however that plays out.

VIX/SPX Divergence Signal

One interesting chart I’ve actually been tracking and sharing for many years now as I like spotting these divergences on the volatility index and S&P 500, and on Friday we had a very clear divergence between S&P 500 and VIX. You can see that S&P 500 made new lows and there were no higher highs on VIX - that is a divergence that usually favors bulls. I’ve highlighted some previous occurrences when that has happened. It’s one of those early signs that you see for exhaustion or the capitulation.

This Week’s Approach

Entering the week with no ideas in the Arsenal. There are a few stocks I’m watching but there’s no point putting them in front of you right now - if the market craps out, those ideas crap with it. If we get positive price action this week then we’ll approach those setups and test them. Until then, patience is the plan.

Closing Remarks

I’m not adding much this week - still sitting on a decent amount of cash and comfortable waiting for better setups. Markets are chopping around and I’m not interested in fighting this tape. When things settle down and we get some confirmation that the bleeding has stopped, I’ll start looking at opportunities again. For now, risk management is the priority.

What are you watching this week? Are you seeing any setups worth paying attention to, or are you on the sidelines like me? Takes 30 seconds to drop a comment below - I read everything and your feedback helps shape these updates.

As always, this analysis is available to all Substack subscribers. If you found value in this breakdown, share it with someone who might benefit from the weekly format.

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Stock Setups to Watch

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Weekly Market Analysis - March 15, 2026

Jobs report disaster, Hormuz shutdown, index breakdowns, sentiment divergence

1. U.S. Macro and Fed

The February CPI report Wednesday came in exactly as expected - up 0.3% monthly and 2.4% annually - but markets barely noticed. The data was backward-looking, predating the oil shock that hit after the Iran strikes. Traders looked right through the tame February numbers and focused instead on what’s coming: March CPI is going to show the energy spike’s full impact.

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Here’s what changed: gasoline prices surged 19% in just two weeks to $3.50 per gallon, the highest since 2024. Economists are now projecting that if oil stays around $100, annual inflation could hit 3.5% by year-end - well above the Fed’s 2% target and far from the 2.4% we’re seeing now. That completely changes the policy picture.

The Fed meets March 17-18, and markets are pricing in 99% odds they hold rates steady. June cut odds have collapsed to around 43% for even one move this year. Fourth-quarter GDP came in at just 1.4% versus 2.5% expected - the weakest pace since the government shutdown dragged on growth. We’re watching growth slow while inflation pressures build. That’s the stagflation setup nobody wants to talk about but everyone’s pricing in.

2. U.S. Equity Performance

This was the market’s third straight losing week, and it got ugly. The S&P dropped just over 1%, the Nasdaq fell around 1.3%, and the Russell 2000 tested the critical 244 level. The S&P broke below December lows - a meaningful shift that confirms this isn’t just volatility, it’s a real correction.

Monday perfectly captured the week’s whipsaw action. Markets opened down nearly 900 points on the Dow after oil surged above $100 over the weekend as Middle East producers cut output. Then Trump told reporters the Iran war was “very complete, pretty much” and markets ripped higher, closing green across the board. That optimism lasted exactly four days.

Friday reversed all of Monday’s gains as Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared the Strait of Hormuz should remain shut “as a tool to pressure the enemy.” Defense Secretary Hegseth announced the largest wave of strikes yet against Iranian targets, making it clear this conflict isn’t winding down despite Monday’s hopeful headlines.

Sector performance was brutal - Energy was the only bright spot. Financials took the biggest hit, which is a major reason Russell 2000 closed well into the red. Software led the selling - Adobe crashed 7.6% after CEO Shantanu Narayen announced he’s stepping down and the company missed guidance. Cruise lines got destroyed as higher oil prices threaten margins - Carnival plunged 6% Friday and is down 20% for the month.

On the industry level - Clean Energy, Solar, Oil & Gas, and Agriculture led. Gold Miners, Home Construction, and Airlines all took a dive.

3. Global Developments and War Front

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for its second full week. Iran’s formal position hardened this week when new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei (who took power after Ali Khamenei was killed in the initial strikes) declared the waterway should stay shut as leverage against the U.S. and Israel.

The consequences are escalating. Major Middle East producers announced production cuts Sunday night as storage facilities filled with nowhere to export crude. Oil spiked to $101-102 per barrel overnight, though it pulled back to finish the week at $98.71 (WTI) and $103.14 (Brent). Brent crossed $100 for the first time since August 2022.

Qatar’s energy minister warned this week that the conflict could “bring down the economies of the world” if it continues. He’s not wrong - roughly 20% of global oil and one-third of seaborne LNG normally transit the strait. That flow has been at zero for two weeks now. The IEA is coordinating strategic reserve releases to try to ease prices, and the U.S. issued a waiver allowing India to buy Russian oil stranded at sea. These are emergency measures that signal genuine concern about economic fallout.

The conflict shows no signs of resolution despite Monday’s brief optimism. Defense Secretary Hegseth announced Friday the largest wave of strikes yet, targeting Iranian military infrastructure. The pattern is clear - escalation, not de-escalation.

Ukraine continues as a secondary front. The war marked its 4th anniversary February 24 with over 1 million casualties, Russia controlling about 20% of Ukrainian territory, and Geneva talks producing nothing. The dual conflicts are straining Western military resources and creating compounding risks.

4. Cross-Asset Signals for U.S. Stocks

Oil’s move above $100 changes everything. WTI finished the week at $98.71, Brent at $103.14 - both up sharply from the prior week’s close. Every $10 oil increase acts as a tax on consumers and margins. If crude stays at these levels, economists project 3.5% inflation by year-end. That kills the Fed cut narrative entirely.

Treasury yields spiked despite weak GDP and falling stocks - a terrible combination that signals stagflation fears. The 10-year climbed roughly 8 basis points over three days mid-week before pulling back slightly. When yields rise alongside falling stocks (instead of the normal inverse relationship), it means markets are pricing slower growth AND higher inflation simultaneously.

Financial stocks got hammered despite the steeper yield curve that should help banks. The sector dropped 4.5% over three days, with regional banks down 7% - the worst three-day slide since last April’s regional banking stress. This isn’t about net interest margins improving from curve steepness. It’s about credit risk, particularly around private credit exposure. The IEI/HYG ratio (Treasuries vs High Yield Corporate Bonds) continues ticking higher, meaning money is rotating out of riskier credit into safer ground - another headwind for equities.

Gold and silver both show potential for further downside based on current technical structure. Despite the geopolitical tensions, the metals are looking vulnerable here. Bitcoin is at an interesting spot - weekly RSI hit oversold levels at the start of March and price came down and respected the 200-week SMA, bouncing from around $58,000 back toward $70,000+. Crypto still remains in a tough spot overall but has approached very strong support. The 50% pullback from highs meets accumulation conditions, though confirmation would require a close back above the 9-week EMA around $75,000.

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Week Ending March 7, 2026

1. U.S. Macro and Fed

February’s jobs report delivered a gut punch Friday morning - the U.S. economy LOST 92,000 jobs versus expectations for a gain of 55,000. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, raising immediate fears that the labor market is cracking just as oil prices surge toward $90 per barrel. This toxic combination - weakening employment alongside spiking energy costs - has Wall Street openly discussing stagflation risk for the first time since the early 1980s.

The Fed’s path forward just got considerably murkier. With WTI crude around $91 and Brent near $87 (both up roughly 25-30% in a week) due to the Iran conflict, inflation pressures are building even as growth indicators flash yellow. Market pricing now reflects just 4% odds of a March rate cut, with June cut probability sitting around 58-60%. The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back 3 basis points Friday to 4.11% on the weak jobs data, but yields jumped sharply for the week overall - the biggest weekly increase since last April’s tariff volatility.

Here’s the critical dynamic nobody’s talking about enough: if this conflict drags on and oil keeps climbing, the Fed can’t cut into rising inflation. The entire rate cut narrative the market’s been leaning on suddenly disappears. That’s not the base case today, but it’s the kind of shift that can change sentiment extremely fast.

2. U.S. Equity Performance

Markets reversed a stunning intraday recovery Monday before collapsing Friday on the employment shock. For the week, the S&P shed about 2%, the Nasdaq lost around 1.2%, and the Russell 2000 got hammered nearly 4%. All three major indexes are now negative for 2026 after starting the year with modest gains.

Monday’s session perfectly captured the week’s schizophrenic character - indexes opened down over 1% on the weekend Iran strikes, then fought back to close nearly flat as bargain hunters pounced on beaten-down tech leaders. Friday erased that resilience entirely as the jobs miss triggered broad selling across all sectors except energy and defense.

The sector story was clear: Energy dominated on Iran tensions. Materials crashed hard - the worst performer. Consumer Staples was second-worst, which is notable given it had been a year-to-date leader just a week ago. Software names actually rallied (best week since April) but this looks more like a relief bounce after 4-5 months of pain rather than a trend change. On the industry level: Oil & Gas led while Gold Miners, Airlines, Homebuilders, Metals & Mining, and Semiconductors all closed deep red.

This isn’t sector rotation within an uptrend - it’s defensive repositioning ahead of potential economic damage. Money is abandoning year-to-date winners and flowing into conflict beneficiaries or simply moving to cash.

3. Global Developments and War Front

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Iran formally declared the waterway off-limits March 2, and tanker traffic has collapsed to near zero after multiple vessel strikes killed crew members and sparked fires. About 20% of global oil supply and roughly one-third of seaborne LNG typically transit this chokepoint - that flow has stopped.

Iraq announced production cuts of 1.5 million barrels per day as storage facilities approach capacity with nowhere to export. Qatar shut down LNG production after Iranian attacks on facilities. Gulf producers face a critical timeline problem: storage will be exhausted within days to weeks, forcing complete production shutdowns if the waterway remains blocked. Iran has indicated it will allow Chinese-flagged vessels to pass, but Western and allied shipping remains paralyzed.

The economic implications extend far beyond energy. Major shipping lines including Maersk have suspended all Hormuz transits and are rerouting around Africa, adding 10-14 days to delivery times and spiking freight costs. War-risk insurance for the strait has become prohibitively expensive for most commercial operators.

Ukraine marked the 4th anniversary of Russia’s invasion February 24. The war grinds on with over 1 million casualties (as of early 2026), Russia controlling about 20% of Ukrainian territory, and Geneva peace talks deadlocked. The dual conflicts - Ukraine and Iran - are straining Western military resources and creating compounding geopolitical risk.

4. Cross-Asset Signals for U.S. Stocks

Oil’s surge toward $90 per barrel (WTI ~$86, Brent ~$89) - up roughly 25-30% in a week - represents one of the sharpest energy price spikes since the early pandemic. Every $10 increase in crude acts as a tax on consumers and compresses corporate margins, particularly for transportation, manufacturing, and consumer discretionary companies. If Brent reaches $100-120 as analysts warn (should Gulf producers be forced offline), recession probability climbs significantly.

Treasury yields exhibited schizophrenic behavior - spiking early week on inflation fears before retreating Friday on growth concerns. This combination of falling yields and falling stocks (rather than the typical inverse relationship) signals serious trouble. Markets are pricing both slower growth AND persistent inflation - the stagflation scenario.

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Most people know EchoStar as the company behind DISH TV - a dying satellite television business losing subscribers every quarter. And they'd be right. But while nobody was paying attention, EchoStar executed one of the most unusual corporate transformations in recent memory, quietly positioning itself at the center of a story that has nothing to do with television. Understanding what this company actually is today - and what it's sitting on - is the entire point of this article.

What this company actually is right now

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1. U.S. Macro and Fed

Markets confronted a resurgence of sticky inflation fears this week after February’s Producer Price Index came in hotter than expected, reinforcing the “higher for longer” rate narrative. The PPI reading added to concerns that inflation won’t glide smoothly back to the Fed’s 2% target, keeping pressure on the central bank to maintain restrictive policy despite signs of economic deceleration.

The macro picture remains challenging: January’s FOMC minutes revealed a deeply divided committee, with some members signaling openness to rate cuts if labor weakens while others suggest rate hikes could be warranted if inflation persists. Markets have dramatically scaled back rate-cut expectations, with June now priced at just 58% probability for a 25bp cut. Q4 GDP’s disappointing 1.4% print showed the economy losing steam, yet Core PCE holding at 3.0% keeps the Fed handcuffed.

For equity investors, this stagflationary setup - slowing growth paired with sticky inflation - is precisely the environment that challenges risk assets. Add escalating geopolitical risk, and the Fed’s ability to provide support becomes even more constrained.

2. U.S. Equity Performance

U.S. stocks gave back much of the prior week’s gains in a choppy, risk-off-leaning session. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.9%, and the Dow declined 1.3%. The pullback came despite Nvidia delivering better-than-expected earnings and guidance - the stock still plunged about 7% as investors questioned stretched hardware valuations and rotated into “AI industrials” and infrastructure plays instead.

For February as a whole, the S&P 500 finished down roughly 0.9%, the Nasdaq tumbled 3.3%, while the Dow eked out a 0.2% monthly gain - its tenth consecutive positive month. This divergence tells the story: mega-cap tech leadership is fragmenting, value/blue-chip names are holding up better, and the market is at what strategists call a “crossroads.”

Under the surface, leadership is shifting dramatically. High-multiple chip leaders and parts of software/cybersecurity came under pressure from both competition and valuation concerns. Meanwhile, AI industrial and infrastructure plays - names tied to power generation, electrical infrastructure, and data center buildout - attracted flows as investors rotated toward what they view as the next phase of the AI trade. The equal-weight S&P 500 continues to outperform the cap-weighted index, confirming the broadening away from mega-cap dominance.

3. Global Developments and War Front

U.S.-Iran Conflict Erupts as Acute Geopolitical Risk Saturday’s massive U.S.-Israeli military operation represents the most significant geopolitical shock in years. “Operation Epic Fury” launched coordinated strikes across Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, multiple senior IRGC commanders, and Iran’s defense minister. Trump called for regime change, vowing sustained operations “until peace is secured.” Iran retaliated immediately with missile strikes on Israel and U.S. bases in Gulf states, with Tehran declaring 40 days of mourning.

The market implications are severe: Iran controls access to the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil shipments. Analysts warn that prolonged conflict or shipping interruptions could spike oil substantially and add 0.6-0.7 percentage points to global inflation. This shifts the entire macro calculus - the Fed can’t ease into a war-driven oil shock without risking further inflation acceleration. Energy stocks will surge, transportation and consumer discretionary will face margin compression, and safe-haven assets will dominate flows.

Ukraine War Enters Fifth Year Monday marked the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion with the war locked in brutal attrition. Russia controls 20% of Ukrainian territory but has suffered over 1 million estimated casualties (as of early 2026). Ukrainian forces recaptured 400 square kilometers in southern regions since late January, though Russia continues grinding advances in Donetsk. The week saw massive Russian drone/missile barrages - over 1,500 drones and 90 missiles - with Ukraine’s improved air defenses neutralizing 90%. Geneva peace talks remain deadlocked. European defense spending continues rising, benefiting U.S. defense contractors.

Gaza Ceasefire Fragile Trump’s ceasefire deal entered Phase 2, with the Board of Peace meeting February 18 (27 nations participating) to coordinate Gaza reconstruction and Hamas disarmament. Despite the “ceasefire,” Israeli strikes have killed over 600 Palestinians since October, with both sides alleging violations. Israel maintains control of roughly half of Gaza, while humanitarian aid remains severely restricted. The fragile peace complicates broader Middle East stability as the Iran conflict escalates.

Global Markets Hold Up Better Developed-market stocks outside the U.S. (MSCI EAFE) actually gained about 1.2% on the week, highlighting that U.S. weakness wasn’t universal. European markets showed resilience despite facing their own tariff headwinds and proximity to multiple conflict zones. This divergence suggests U.S.-specific concerns (tech valuations, AI trade rotation) drove domestic weakness more than global macro factors.

4. U.S. Sectors, Styles, and Themes

Financials suffered the week’s sharpest reversal after a widely circulated research piece warned that rapid AI adoption could cause large white-collar job losses and weaker consumer spending. Capital One and Wells Fargo saw particularly sharp declines as investors grappled with implications for loan growth, credit quality, and employment-sensitive revenue streams. The thesis: if AI displaces millions of knowledge workers, consumer credit demand collapses and defaults rise - a double-whammy for banks.

Technology experienced its most pronounced fragmentation yet. Nvidia’s roughly 7% weekly decline despite an earnings beat exemplifies the rotation underway. High-multiple semiconductor and software names sold off as investors questioned whether current valuations price in too much perfection. Conversely, AI industrial plays - power generators like Vistra and NRG, electrical infrastructure providers like nVent, data center REITs - attracted strong buying. The narrative: AI infrastructure spending remains robust, but the winners are shifting downstream from chipmakers to the companies building out power and connectivity.

Energy showed relative strength ahead of the Iran strikes, with the sector positioning for potential supply disruptions. This will accelerate dramatically next week. Defensive sectors (Utilities, Consumer Staples, Healthcare) held up reasonably well, outperforming the broader market as investors sought portfolio ballast amid rising uncertainty.

5. Cross-Asset Signals for U.S. Stocks

Treasury yields remained sticky despite weak equity performance, with the 10-year hovering around 4.08-4.10%. The hot PPI print reinforced that inflation won’t cooperate with dovish hopes, keeping bond markets on edge. The 2-year/10-year curve sits around 60bp - uncomfortably flat and signaling bond markets remain focused on inflation persistence rather than growth concerns.

Gold delivered the week’s - and month’s - most spectacular performance. Gold futures surged approximately 11% for February, marking the strongest monthly percentage gain since 2012. The move toward historically elevated levels reflects investors hedging both inflation and geopolitical risk. This isn’t speculative positioning - it’s portfolio insurance being bought at scale. Gold miners (GDX) have followed suit, with the group becoming one of the year’s top-performing sectors.

The VIX finished the week in the low 20s, elevated from the sub-17 levels seen in early February but not yet reflecting panic. However, the Iran strikes Saturday will almost certainly spike volatility significantly when markets reopen Monday. Credit spreads remain relatively contained, though investment-grade and high-yield markets are beginning to price in higher risk premiums.

With the Strait of Hormuz now at risk and 20% of global crude supply potentially threatened, energy traders are bracing for a significant gap-up Monday if the conflict shows no signs of quick resolution.

6. Market Internals and Sentiment

Small caps underperformed again, with the Russell 2000 down roughly 0.5% for the week. The index’s early-2026 strength has completely evaporated as investors question how domestic-focused small caps navigate slowing growth, sticky inflation, and now an energy price shock. The Russell 2000 equal-weight versus cap-weight spread shows similar deterioration, confirming broad-based weakness.

NAAIM Exposure: NAAIM measures how heavily active investment managers are positioned in the market, ranging from -200% (fully short) to +200% (fully leveraged long). This week’s reading came in at 82.87, showing managers remain moderately bullish but well below the extreme optimism levels we saw earlier this year when it hit 100+. This suggests cautious positioning rather than euphoric bullishness.

AAII Sentiment: AAII surveys individual investors on their 6-month market outlook. Extreme readings (very high bullish or bearish) often signal contrarian opportunities.

Sentiment indicators show an interesting divergence between retail and professional investors. The latest AAII sentiment survey (week ending 2/25) shows bearish sentiment at 39.8% versus bullish at just 33.2% - a bearish tilt that's above the historical average of 31.0%. This marks the highest bearish reading since early April 2025 and represents a notable shift from the more optimistic positioning seen earlier in February. Historically, elevated retail pessimism can be a contrarian bullish indicator.

While NAAIM exposure levels show professional managers reducing equity allocations to lowest levels since Jul 2025. This is usually a good sign to see as sentiment finally drops and is needed to form a bottom.

Overall risk tone: Defensive and deteriorating rapidly. The Iran strikes transform an already-cautious market into one facing a genuine crisis. Expect heavy repositioning Monday into energy, defense, gold, and cash.

Just a quick note- In this analysis we will look at 8 key charts & ideas.

7. Key Takeaways for Investors

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The rebound wasn't driven by euphoria – it was buyers showing up quietly when indexes dipped, almost like they were testing the water rather than diving in headfirst. Former high‑fliers stabilized but didn't explode, while cyclicals got some love. For me, that's the sign of a market that's still constructive underneath but demanding respect for the risks.

S&P 500 climbed 1.1% and reclaimed its 50-day moving average – dip-buyers are alive and well. Nasdaq up 1.5%, breaking a five-week losing streak as big tech/AI names stopped bleeding. Dow lagged at +0.3% – growth/tech led, not old-school industrials.

Tech and communication services drove the bounce, cyclicals participated, defensives cooled off. That’s the rotation from “protect capital” to “measured risk” – healthy, not frothy.

The macro and the Fed

Inflation drifting toward mid-2s – Fed-friendly territory. Growth messy: late 2025 soft, January rebound. Not recession, just slowing from fast jog to brisk walk. Jobs surprised up, unemployment low, wages cooling but stable.

Fed staying patient: no hikes needed, cuts possible if inflation cooperates. Markets price next move down, timing TBD. Soft landing intact – good for quality equities, less so for junk.

Global moves that matter

Non-U.S. outperforming (”Ex-America” trade gaining steam). FTSE 100 records show capital hunting returns beyond U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling boosted global risk appetite, but Trump’s new 10% floor framework keeps uncertainty alive. Iran tensions add oil/geopolitical premium – multinationals/energy most exposed.

In this article, we're covering the broader market and 12 stocks I'm watching right now. I'll share technical analysis on each - setups you can use for position trading or long-term investing depending on your style.

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This Week’s Critical Data

Quiet winners:

• Memory chip makers (Sandisk, Seagate, Western Digital) among S&P top performers while everyone focused on AI chaos

Wednesday, Feb 12 - January Jobs Report (DELAYED):

• Expected: ~70,000 jobs added

• Unemployment: 4.4%

• This is delayed data from the shutdown - market’s been blind on labor for weeks

Friday, Feb 14 - January CPI:

• December was 2.7% YoY

• Looking for disinflation to continue

• Jobs + inflation in same week is rare and will determine Fed’s path

Also: Tuesday has Retail Sales and ADP. Thursday has Jobless Claims.

If jobs disappoint AND inflation stays hot, Fed is stuck. That’s the stagflation scenario markets fear.

Sentiment & Positioning

Record short interest hit last week - highest in 5 years. Extreme oversold readings across the market. Historically, these setups mark near-term lows when looking 2-6 months out. But washed-out sentiment doesn’t mean the trend changed - just potential for a bounce. We will touch on what I am seeing next.

What’s Inside This Week’s Report

At a high level, here’s what we’re covering: diving into the major indexes with technical analysis on key support and resistance levels, unpacking the sector rotation that’s reshaping the market landscape, and examining market breadth indicators to gauge the health of this rally. There’s a lot to unpack, and everything you need is laid out here.

Beyond the macro view, I’m also breaking down 9 individual stock ideas that are standing out right now - names that look extremely compelling from both a technical and fundamental perspective across different themes and sectors.

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It’s not some obscure small-cap. It’s not a hot new tech stock. It’s actually a name you know - but one that Wall Street has completely given up on. The stock’s been getting crushed for two years straight, sitting right on a 10-year support level that’s held five times before.

Here’s what caught my attention: This thing trades at 7.5x earnings while throwing off $19 billion in annual free cash flow. That’s a 16% cash yield on a $116 billion market cap company. The dividend alone is 4.1%.

So why is it this cheap? Because the core business is dying. They lost 710,000 broadband customers last year and it’s accelerating. The market thinks it’s a value trap.

But here’s the thing - sometimes the best trades aren’t buying great businesses at fair prices. Sometimes it’s buying mediocre businesses at prices so cheap that even a mediocre outcome pays you.

That’s what we’re analyzing tonight. The technical setup is there. Let me walk you through the numbers, show you what’s actually working versus what’s broken, and give you the exact levels to watch.

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Everybody, hope you’re all having a wonderful weekend.
Let’s take a few minutes to recap last week and then walk through a plan for the week ahead.

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Wild doesn’t begin to describe it. The Dow smashed through 50,000 for the first time (closing at 50,216), but that headline hides the chaos underneath. S&P 500 basically flat (down 0.1%), Nasdaq got crushed 1.9%. Amazon’s $200 billion AI spending bombshell triggered a tech meltdown Thursday. Bitcoin flash-crashed to $60K with $2.6 billion in liquidations. Software stocks are in a full-blown identity crisis. Then Friday happened - everything ripped higher in a violent reversal. This is what volatility looks like.

How the Week Played Out

Monday-Wednesday: Cracks Forming
Tech started showing weakness early week. Software stocks led the decline as the AI disruption narrative gained momentum. Markets were jittery, earnings were mixed, and the setup felt fragile.

Thursday: The Panic
This is where things went sideways fast. Amazon reported after the close Wednesday, and the reaction Thursday was brutal. Then Bitcoin collapsed to $60,062 - its worst single-day drop (15%) since the FTX collapse in November 2022. Over $2.6 billion in forced liquidations hit the crypto market in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $2.1 billion of that carnage. The crypto fear and greed index hit 5 - “extreme fear” and the lowest level since the index launched in June 2023. S&P 500 fell 1.23%, Nasdaq shed 1.59%. Pure capitulation.

Friday: The Snapback
Markets decided they overreacted. Semiconductors surged 5.7%. Small caps exploded 3.6% on the Russell 2000. Bitcoin staged a massive 11% rally back above $70K (closing around $70,786). Industrials went ballistic - Caterpillar up 7%, GE Aerospace up 5%. Airlines joined the party with Delta up 7% and United up 8%. The Dow pushed past 50K. Classic V-shaped recovery that left anyone who panic-sold on Thursday looking foolish.

The Amazon Earthquake

What Happened
Amazon reported Q4 results Wednesday night that beat on revenue ($213.4 billion, up 14% YoY) and showed AWS growth accelerating to 24% - the fastest in 13 quarters. Sounds great, right? Then CEO Andy Jassy dropped the bomb: Amazon plans to spend approximately $200 billion in capex for 2026. That’s $50 billion more than Wall Street expected and a 50% jump from the $125 billion they spent in 2025.

The Reaction
The stock cratered, falling 8-10% depending on when you checked. Earnings per share came in at $1.95, missing the $1.97 estimate. But the real issue isn’t the quarter - it’s the future. Free cash flow is expected to turn negative this year as Amazon pours money into AI infrastructure, data centers, chips, robotics, and low earth orbit satellites.

Why It Matters
This isn’t just an Amazon story. The four hyperscalers - Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft - are now projected to spend between $650-700 billion combined in 2026 on AI infrastructure, up 60% from 2025. That’s more than Israel’s entire GDP. Alphabet announced $175-185 billion in capex, Meta said $115-135 billion, and Microsoft is running at a $145 billion annual rate. Investors are freaking out because the return on investment timeline is unclear, and free cash flow across Big Tech is getting crushed while they chase AI dominance.

The Software Stock Massacre

The Bloodbath
Enterprise software stocks aren’t just down - they’re getting obliterated. ServiceNow crashed 13% this week despite beating revenue expectations. Salesforce down 7%. Workday down 8%. Adobe hit its lowest level since April 2020, erasing all pandemic gains and seeing its market cap collapse from $350 billion to $107 billion. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF is down 20% year-to-date. Companies like HubSpot, Atlassian, Intuit, DocuSign, LegalZoom - all hitting 52-week lows or worse.

The Thesis
AI coding tools and automation platforms (especially Anthropic’s Claude) are disrupting the entire SaaS business model. The fear: companies will use AI to build their own software instead of paying expensive subscription fees. Anthropic just launched tools to automate legal work and general business processes, causing LegalZoom and Thomson Reuters to plunge. The market is pricing in a world where enterprise software gets commoditized by AI.

The Valuation Reset
These stocks were also way too expensive. Adobe’s forward P/E ratio has collapsed from a five-year average of 30 to just 12. ServiceNow dropped from a 67 P/E to 28. Atlassian went from 111 to 23. This is both a disruption story and a valuation correction happening simultaneously.

Just a quick note for anyone reading this - I recently put out a in-depth piece focused on market rotation and what’s happening under the hood ( Link ). I spent a good amount of time breaking it down and explaining why certain areas are working while others are stalling. This will be a guide to have handy in 2026. I think it ties a lot of what we’re seeing together, so if you’re interested, I’d definitely recommend checking it out.

Let’s keep going.

Pharma Drama: The 48-Hour Weight-Loss Drug War

Thursday’s Announcement
Hims & Hers dropped a bombshell Thursday morning - they’d start selling a compounded oral semaglutide pill (a Wegovy copycat) for $49/month versus Novo Nordisk’s $149 branded price. This is “illegal mass compounding” according to Novo, and the pharma giant’s stock immediately plunged 7%. Eli Lilly fell 7% too on contagion fears.

The Legal Battle
Novo Nordisk fired back within hours, issuing a statement calling it illegal, unsafe, and deceptive. They threatened legal and regulatory action, claiming Hims was using unapproved foreign ingredients from Chinese suppliers that the FDA never inspected.

The Saturday Reversal
By Saturday morning, Hims completely reversed course and dropped the plan entirely. The FDA had stepped in and announced it would restrict access to GLP-1 drug ingredients used in compounding. Hims issued a statement saying they’d had “constructive conversations with stakeholders” and would no longer offer the treatment. The entire saga lasted 48 hours and wiped billions off Novo’s market cap before the dust settled.

The Bigger Picture
Novo Nordisk is already having a rough 2026 - they’re forecasting sales will decline 5-13% this year. This weight-loss drug drama just added fuel to the fire.

Economic Data That Mattered

Manufacturing Roars Back
ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 52.6 in January - the strongest reading since 2022 and the first expansion in 12 months. This crushed expectations of 48.5 and December’s 47.9. New orders jumped to 57.1 from 47.4, production surged to 55.9 from 50.7. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI confirmed it at 52.4 (up from 51.8). Manufacturing is genuinely recovering.

Consumer Sentiment Ticks Up
Consumer confidence improved slightly to 57.3 in early February from 55.8, helped by declining inflation expectations. People are feeling marginally better about the outlook.

The 10-Year Yield
Treasury yields climbed to 4.276% as stronger manufacturing data pushed out rate cut expectations. Stronger economy means less urgency for the Fed to move.

Fed’s Position

The January 28 Decision
The Fed held rates steady at 3.5-3.75% at their January meeting, pausing after three consecutive cuts last fall. This was unanimous on the surface, but there’s internal division brewing. Some members wanted a cut - the dissenters included officials worried about labor market fragility.

The Internal Debate
Governor Michelle Bowman argued publicly that the labor market remains too fragile for a pause and that current policy is still “moderately restrictive.” She warned that signaling a long pause could falsely imply the Fed won’t respond to a weakening jobs market. Other officials see the recent cuts as sufficient. The “dot plot” shows only one rate cut projected for all of 2026, but that narrow consensus masks deep divisions.

The AI Inflation Warning
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson spoke Friday, saying he’s “cautiously optimistic” for 2026 - expecting above-trend growth, stable jobs, and falling inflation toward 2%. But here’s the kicker: he warned that massive AI infrastructure investments (like Amazon’s $200B) could actually push inflation higher short-term as money floods into data center construction. That complicates the cutting calculus.

Labor Market Concerns
December payroll growth was just 50,000 jobs - a weak print that’s raising concerns about softening. The market is now pricing in maybe two rate cuts total for 2026, with the first one likely not until June.

The Missing Data

Jobs Report Delayed
Friday’s January employment report was delayed due to the partial government shutdown. This is a massive hole in the data picture. We’re flying blind on the labor market right now.

What’s Coming This Week

• Wednesday: January jobs report (expecting around 70,000 jobs added, unemployment holding at 4.4%)

• Friday: January CPI inflation data

This back-to-back jobs/inflation combo will be critical for Fed expectations. If jobs disappoint and inflation stays elevated, the Fed’s really boxed in - stagflation risk becomes real.

The Market Rotation

Sector Leadership
Clear rotation out of tech and into everything else. Consumer Staples led as investors sought safety. Industrials and Materials crushed it on the back of that strong manufacturing data. Energy held up well despite oil dropping 4.4%.

Small Caps vs Mega-Cap Tech
Russell 2000 up 7% year-to-date while Nasdaq is down 1.9%. Money is flowing down the market cap spectrum into domestically-focused names.

Airlines and Industrials
Friday’s rally saw industrials and transportation stocks surge. Caterpillar up 7%, GE Aerospace up 5%, Delta up 7%, United up 8%. This is classic risk-on behavior and signals that investors believe the economy is strong enough to support cyclical growth.

Solar - Strong action all week as the clean energy trade heats up again. Benefiting from infrastructure spending expectations and policy tailwinds.

Home Construction - Homebuilders had another solid week, continuing the move from the $100 area. Housing supply still tight, mortgage rates stable around 6.5%. This move still looks early.

(Chart attached)

Memory Chip Makers - Quiet Winners
While everyone obsessed over the AI infrastructure drama, memory chip makers like Sandisk, Seagate, and Western Digital were among the S&P 500’s top performers for the week. They’re benefiting from AI demand without the hype or the spending concerns.

Bottom Line

The market is having a full-blown identity crisis. The AI infrastructure buildout is real and massive ($700 billion real), but investors are questioning whether returns will justify the spending. Software stocks are getting repriced on existential disruption fears. Bitcoin proved it’s still a speculative risk asset, not digital gold. And the macro picture is confusing - strong growth signals (manufacturing PMI, GDP tracking around 5%) but labor market cracks forming (50K December jobs).

The Dow hitting 50K is both psychological and meaningful - it says the bull market is technically intact. But the volatility underneath the surface is intense. The rotation is clear: small caps up 7% YTD, value and cyclicals outperforming, while high-valuation tech and software getting destroyed.

Index Perspective

S&P 500 Outlook

Despite how negative things may sound in headlines, the indexes themselves are not breaking down. What’s been weighing on the market is rotation under the hood - some areas cooling off while others continue to hold up very well.

For the S&P 500, price tested the 21-week EMA last week, which marked the lows. We are still holding within a rising structure.

Key levels I’m watching:

• First support: 686

• Secondary support: 680

• A weekly close below 680 would open the door for a move toward 670

On the upside, I’m watching the 696–700 zone closely. That area is likely to attract selling pressure. It wouldn’t surprise me if the index chops within the 680–700 range for a bit longer, especially given where we are seasonally.

NASDAQ Outlook

NASDAQ sliced below the 21-week EMA last week, which understandably made things uncomfortable. But when you zoom out, price essentially pulled back to fill the December 18 gap near 602, briefly undercut it, trapped sellers, and then bounced.

This week, I’m focused on how price behaves around:

• 606

• 600

As long as we stay within that range, it suggests continued choppy action.

On the upside:

• First resistance: 614 (9 EMA)

• Next resistance: 618 (21 EMA)

• Stronger resistance above that near 626

Russell 2000 / Small Caps

We’ve been spending more time on Russell 2000 lately because it’s been the leadership index.

Last week, price pulled back into the 55 SMA, found buyers, and broke higher on Friday. If the S&P 500 continues to grind higher, I expect Russell 2000 to follow through as well - with the bigger-picture 300 target still in view.

Because of that, this week I’ll be keeping TNA (the leveraged small-cap ETF) back on my radar.

Bitcoin & Ethereum

Bitcoin dropped over 20% this week - the worst weekly performance we’ve seen in 2026. Thursday was the peak of the chaos with Bitcoin briefly touching $60K and over $2.6 billion in liquidations hitting the market. Fear was maxed out.

The big concern? Everyone thought Michael Saylor and MSTR were about to get margin called and forced to sell their entire Bitcoin position, which would’ve sent everything lower. That turned out to be wrong. On their earnings call Thursday night, MSTR’s CEO said they’re not in danger unless Bitcoin falls below $8,000. The relief was immediate - MSTR jumped from $100 to $135 by Friday, and Bitcoin recovered back above $70K.

My Technical view:

Bitcoin tested its long-term channel and the 2021 highs.Ethereum tested its long-term channel.
This is where long-term bottoms usually form.

1. Sentiment is ugly.
2. Price is sitting on major support.
3. Multiple technical levels are being tested.

Buying $ETH at 1800 and $BTC at 60k
is like getting a 70% and 50% discount
on the same assets people were chasing at the highs.

Based on many factors that I'm noticing I lean that that a bottom has been achieved on Bitcoin and Ethereum boat and if there was a price level that I would prefer and feel comfortable being bullish at it would be this.

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Tech stocks are pulling back. The Magnificent Seven are taking a breather. And a lot of people are asking if this is the beginning of the end.

It’s not. This is rotation, and it’s how bull markets extend.

The market isn’t breaking down. It’s broadening out.

But there's a pattern emerging. And if you know your history, it should get your attention.

The Concentration Problem

For nearly two years, seven companies drove the entire market. Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Alphabet made up almost a third of the S&P 500’s total value.

That’s not diversification. That’s concentration risk.

What the Data Shows

Here’s what’s happened over the last three months:

Leading Sectors:

• Basic Materials: +28.47%

• Energy: +17.16%

• Consumer Defensive: +14.94%

• Industrials: +10.47%

• Healthcare: +8.33%

• Financials: +6.75%

Lagging Sectors:

• Technology: -9.46%

• Consumer Cyclical: -2.62%

• Utilities: -1.02%

This is sector rotation. Money is leaving concentrated tech and flowing into cyclical sectors that bet on economic growth.

My 2026 Market Outlook was published a few weeks ago (link ). It lays out the full framework I’m using this year: where the indices are headed, the macro/micro drivers that matter, sector + industry leadership, crypto, and my highest-conviction themes, along with actionable watchlists and buying zones. If you want the context behind my calls in articles like this, that outlook is the best place to start.

What This Rotation Means

Cyclicals Leading = Growth Expectations

Basic Materials, Energy, and Industrials don’t rally unless investors expect economic activity to continue. These sectors make money when factories run, construction happens, and commodity demand stays strong.

You don’t see 28% gains in Materials if the market thinks a recession is coming.

Tech Pullback = Deconcentration

Technology down 9.46% isn’t a collapse. It’s a reset. The mega-cap tech names had a massive two-year run. They’re consolidating while money spreads to other areas.

This reduces concentration risk. The market is less dependent on seven stocks carrying everything.

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If you’ve been watching the markets this past week, you probably saw one of the wildest moves in commodity history. Silver just had its worst day since 1980, dropping over 31% on Friday, January 30, 2026. We’re talking hundreds of billions wiped out across ETFs, futures, and mining stocks in a matter of hours.

The internet went absolutely nuts. China dumping? JP Morgan manipulation? I spent the weekend digging through Bloomberg, Reuters, COMEX data, analyst reports, and yeah, even the Twitter conspiracy threads and Reddit chaos. Here’s what actually happened.

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The Rally That Had Everyone Talking

Let’s rewind a bit. Silver spent the last several months on an absolute tear. We’re talking low $20s in mid-2025 to over $120/oz at the peak. That’s one of the strongest runs we’ve seen in decades, and it wasn’t random.

China was the driving force. They consume somewhere around 50-60% of global silver, and almost all of it goes to industrial use. Solar panels ate up a massive chunk as they went all-in on green energy. Then you’ve got EVs, electronics, 5G buildout, AI hardware - all this stuff needs silver because nothing conducts electricity quite like it does.

Here’s the thing though: we’ve had years of underinvestment in silver mining. The market’s been running deficits of 150-200 million ounces every single year. Supply couldn’t keep up, and China wasn’t just buying - they were stockpiling. Premiums in Shanghai went crazy, sometimes $10-20 over Western spot prices. Physical metal was flowing east like crazy.

On top of all that, you had the perfect macro setup. Everyone expected Fed rate cuts, the dollar was looking weaker, inflation worries were still floating around, and geopolitical tensions kept people nervous. Speculators jumped in hard - we saw record net long positions on COMEX. Silver has always been more volatile than gold, so when gold moved, silver absolutely flew.

People were calling for $150+ if the trend kept going. It felt unstoppable.

Then Friday Happened

Friday, January 30th. Silver lost nearly a third of its value in one session. The worst daily drop since the 1980s. So what the hell changed overnight?

The catalyst was pretty straightforward: Trump announced Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair.

Warsh has a reputation. He’s known as an inflation hawk - the kind of guy who’s skeptical of endless money printing and actually wants to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet. The market immediately started pricing in a completely different scenario. Higher rates for longer. Potential quantitative tightening instead of easing. The dollar jumped, and precious metals got absolutely hammered.

But what turned a bad day into a historic massacre? Leverage.

Speculative positioning was at extremes. All those record longs meant margin calls hit hard once key technical levels broke. The market was thin, stop-losses triggered in waves, and the CME’s recent shift to percentage-based margins made everything worse. It was a textbook overextended unwind.

Here’s what’s interesting: stocks barely moved. Most other commodities were fine. This was specifically a precious metals panic tied directly to the Fed expectations shift.

The JP Morgan Situation

Okay, now for the part everyone’s arguing about online.

As silver crashed, COMEX delivery data showed JP Morgan covering hundreds of short contracts right near the lows. Naturally, people lost their minds. “They manipulated the price down to close their shorts and made billions!”

Look, JP Morgan has baggage. They’ve been fined for spoofing and manipulation in precious metals before. So the suspicion isn’t coming from nowhere.

Here’s my take: Yes, big banks like JPM are huge players in the silver market. They run vaults, they make markets, they hedge positions. Covering shorts during a crash isn’t unusual, and yes, they probably made money. Some arbitrage between London and COMEX prices definitely happened.

But every mainstream source - Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ - points to the Warsh announcement, dollar strength, and forced liquidations as the real drivers. Not some orchestrated takedown.

One thing worth mentioning: Chinese traders had gotten really levered up, which made the whole setup more fragile. But there’s zero evidence China was dumping. Actually, physical premiums in Shanghai exploded again right after the crash as buyers jumped on the dip.

What Now?

The long-term silver story hasn’t changed. Industrial demand, especially from China and the green energy/AI buildout, is real and growing. Supply deficits aren’t going anywhere.

Crashes like this shake out the weak hands. They set up the next move higher once things calm down.

If Warsh ends up being less hawkish than people fear (and we’ll learn a lot during his confirmation hearings), or if global growth stays solid, silver could snap back hard. Physical buyers in Asia are already stepping in aggressively.

My Technical View:

Here’s what I’m seeing: silver’s been in a really clean, strong uptrend since November. At one point it was up roughly 120% from those November levels - so a sharp pullback / mean reversion was always on the table… and we finally got it last week.

Price dumped hard into the 50-day SMA, and what stands out is we haven’t meaningfully tested that moving average since November 21st (which ended up being the low). Before that, the 50 SMA acted as a key pivot a few times - it helped form a low in August, another in July, and then when price reclaimed it in May, that’s really when the upside move started to accelerate.

Now we tagged that 50 SMA again on Friday - and it wasn’t just one support level. It also lined up with:

• the 50% retracement from the April bottom, and

• my anchored VWAP / volume-price levels from November (levels I actually respect because they tend to matter when the market’s emotional).

So we’ve got multiple supports stacking in the same area - that’s the kind of confluence I pay attention to.

What I’m watching this week

• If silver holds above $75: that tells me support is being accepted, and we can easily see a bounce back toward $97–$98.

• If silver loses $75: that opens the door to a deeper pullback - potentially $69, and worst case even into the high $50s.

From a bounce-trading perspective, this is exactly why the level matters - you want clean invalidation and a strong risk/reward setup. No one wants to be guessing in the middle.

Bottom line: The rally was built on real fundamentals. The crash was a sentiment shock that got amplified by too much leverage - not some grand conspiracy.

Hope this helps if you’ve been tracking silver.

Just to be crystal clear: this is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. It’s purely educational - just pointing out what I’m watching and how I’m thinking about the technicals.

What’s your take? Buying the dip, waiting for more clarity, or staying away entirely?

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Talk soon,
Prof

Even though it was the weekend, markets didn’t really slow down. Crypto kept everyone busy, and weeks like this are a good reminder that no amount of preparation fully prepares you for markets packed with catalysts. All we can do is stay disciplined, stick to the process, and respond to what price is actually doing.

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January Recap

January is officially behind us, and honestly, it felt like six months packed into one.

• S&P 500 closed January up just under 1.5%

• NASDAQ finished the month up roughly 1%

• Russell 2000 had a standout month, up nearly 5.5%

That kind of performance - especially out of small caps. Some things worked well, others didn’t, and at times it felt messy. That’s normal in a headline-heavy, event-driven environment.

Sectors & Industries

On the sector front last week, leadership came from:

• Energy

• Communications

• Utilities

From an industry and sub-sector standpoint, strength showed up in:

• Oil & Gas

• Insurance

• Agriculture

Toward the end of the week, precious metals grabbed attention. Gold and silver had an aggressive move followed by a sharp pullback. While the headlines made it sound dramatic, context matters. Both gold and silver are still well up over the past 6–12 months - last week’s move essentially retraced prices back to levels from just a couple of weeks earlier.

We also saw pressure in clean energy and continued weakness across several software names following Microsoft’s earnings. This still looks like rotation, not a breakdown.

Market Structure & Leadership Check

Overall, we’re still in a choppy environment, and the indexes don’t have clean direction yet. We’re seeing more indecision candles, more broken charts, and fewer clean follow-through setups.

Right now, there are only a handful of names I’m comfortable participating in with confidence. Many former leaders from late last year are starting to lose momentum and turn into laggards. You can see that shift clearly in names like Palantir, Robinhood, Spotify, Shopify, and Reddit.

That doesn’t make the market bearish - it just tells me leadership is changing. And when leadership changes, patience matters more than activity.

Market Recap & Key Events

Historic Precious Metals Move
Silver plunged roughly 31% and gold fell about 11% in a single session on January 30 - one of the sharpest one-day drops on record. This likely reflected forced liquidations and positioning unwinds rather than a structural breakdown, but it hit mining stocks and commodity-heavy portfolios hard.

New Fed Chair Named: Kevin Warsh
The announcement of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair added uncertainty late in the week. Markets are now recalibrating expectations around policy direction, especially given his historically more hawkish lean. But I expect a change in Kevin Warsh especially given Trump picked him.

Fed Holds Rates Steady
The FOMC left rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, pausing the prior cutting cycle. Officials emphasized slower job growth and still-elevated inflation, reinforcing a data-dependent stance and pushing out near-term rate-cut expectations.

S&P 500 Prints Multiple Record Highs
The index pushed to fresh all-time highs early in the week before giving back some gains by Friday - again highlighting the market’s reliance on a narrow group of large-cap leaders.

Mixed Weekly Index Performance

• S&P 500: +0.3%

• Nasdaq: −0.2%

• Dow: −0.4%

Narrow leadership remains a theme - and a risk - if participation doesn’t broaden.

Mega-Cap Earnings Drive Volatility
Strong earnings from names like Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla drove sharp moves and reinforced tech’s dominance. Tech is still expected to contribute a large share of overall earnings growth this cycle.

Health Insurers Under Pressure
Health insurers sold off on Medicare reimbursement and policy concerns, weighing on the Dow and reminding us how quickly politically sensitive sectors can turn into pressure points.

U.S. Dollar Hits Four-Year Lows
The weaker dollar helped multinational earnings short term but raises longer-term inflation and competitiveness questions.

Volatility Picks Up
The week started optimistic but ended softer as markets digested policy changes, earnings, and leadership shifts. With earnings season ongoing, volatility is likely here to stay.

Bottom Line on Events
The market is still rewarding large-cap growth and strong earnings, but commodity shocks, policy transitions, and narrow leadership are flashing yellow lights.

Index Outlook

S&P 500 Outlook

Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ already hit upside targets I’ve been talking about for months. A pause or pullback here is completely normal.

Support levels to watch:

• 683

• 676

• 671 (stronger support if things get sloppy)

Upside levels:

• 700 remains the key target

• 712 is possible with a strong catalyst, but not my base case

I expect more range-bound action rather than a straight-line move higher.

NASDAQ Outlook

NASDAQ pulled back into the 55 SMA, which explains recent discomfort. With major earnings still in play, moves here can be sharp.

Support:

• 617

• 610 (key level)

Resistance:

• 630 is the first level that matters

Until earnings clear, I expect NASDAQ to remain reactive rather than directional.

Russell 2000

Small caps continue to act constructively.

• A pullback into the 55 SMA near 252 would be a reasonable area to look for opportunity

• That level would also line up well for a position trade via TNA

Breadth & Market Internals

Breadth remains strong, participation is healthy, and this still looks like rotation, not distribution. Seasonality also supports choppiness into mid-to-late February, which aligns with what we’re seeing now.

This phase isn’t something to fight - it’s something to use. It’s where future setups begin forming.

For now:

• Breadth looks solid

• No major red flags

• No urgency or panic required

Bottom Line

This is an environment where doing less can be just as important as doing more. I’m focusing on managing existing positions, watching price action closely, and letting the market come to me instead of forcing trades in chop.

There’s no rush. Opportunities will come - and when they do, being clear-headed and well-positioned will matter far more than being busy.

Chart Drop:

CVX (Chevron) - Integrated oil & gas major with upstream production, refining, and chemicals. Tends to track crude/oil margins and is often researched for dividends, buybacks, and energy-cycle exposure.

EOSE (Eos Energy Enterprises) - Makes zinc-based grid storage systems; a high-volatility name tied to manufacturing ramp, contract execution, and financing needs. Watch backlog quality, gross margin trajectory, and liquidity.

JMIA (Jumia Technologies) - Pan-African e-commerce/logistics and payments story with execution and macro risk. Investors focus on path to profitability, active customers, take-rate, and cash burn.

TEVA (Teva Pharmaceutical) - Large generics and specialty pharma company; performance is driven by pricing in generics, key branded products, and legal/settlement overhangs. Track debt reduction and cash flow.

TTWO (Take-Two Interactive) - Video game publisher with major franchises; results can swing with release timing and live-service performance. Catalysts often revolve around pipeline, bookings, and big-title launches.

TWLO (Twilio) - Cloud communications platform (SMS/voice/email); valuation depends on durable growth, customer spend trends, and margin expansion. Watch net retention, profitability, and competition/pricing pressure.

UEC (Uranium Energy Corp.) - Uranium developer/producer leveraged to the uranium price cycle and project permitting/ramp timelines. Key risks are commodity swings, funding, and execution at assets.

XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) - ETF of large U.S. energy companies (heavy in majors like Exxon/Chevron). Used for broad energy exposure; returns largely follow oil/gas prices and sector capital discipline.

I decided to make this available to everyone so we can all benefit from the stock breakdowns and broader market updates. If it brings you value, I’d really appreciate you sharing it with your friends and family as a way to support the work. I’ll continue putting these together as long as the response stays strong.

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Disclosure

This newsletter is provided for educational and informational purposes only and reflects my personal opinions and market views at the time of writing. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, cryptocurrency, or financial instrument.

I am not a registered financial advisor, and nothing shared here should be considered personalized investment guidance. All markets involve risk, and you are solely responsible for your own investment and trading decisions.

By reading this newsletter or subscribing to it, you acknowledge and agree that:

• Any actions you take based on this content are done at your own risk

• You understand that losses can occur, including the loss of all invested capital

• You will perform your own due diligence and risk assessment before making decisions

I may hold positions in some of the securities, ETFs, or assets mentioned, and those positions may change at any time without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

This publication is not an alert service. I do not provide real-time trade alerts, entry/exit signals, or portfolio management services. Content is shared when I believe it adds value, not on a fixed schedule.

If you are unsure whether investing or trading is appropriate for you, consider consulting a licensed financial professional.

Hey everyone - hope you’re all having a great and safe weekend.

Let’s take a few minutes to recap last week and then walk through a plan for the week ahead.

Market Recap

Last week played out largely as expected. The S&P 500 pulled back into our key support zone just below 680 and bounced strongly from that area. NASDAQ did the same, holding the 609 level we were watching very closely. Both levels acted exactly the way strong support should.

Despite some intraday volatility, markets finished the week essentially flat, which tells me buyers are still stepping in on dips rather than distributing aggressively.

On the sector side, leadership came from Energy, followed by Materials. Outside of that, there wasn’t much that truly stood out.

From an industry perspective, Gold and Metals & Mining continued to remain front and center, along with other commodity-related groups. We also saw strong price action in Solar, which has been one of our more bullish themes since late last year good to see that thesis continue to play out.

Oil & Gas also performed well last week, and I continue to like that group over the next 12–18 months, assuming execution and policy support remain intact. The price action we’re starting to see there resembles early-stage breakouts similar to what Gold showed a few years ago. If this trend continues, there’s real upside potential ahead.

Toward the end of the week, we saw a pullback in Intel, which shouldn’t be a surprise. Stocks is up about 60% in last 30 days and running hot into Earnings usually results in sell the news event. Intel is a long term idea so small pullbacks along the way are absolutely fine. and I’ve also flagged the $50 resistance zone repeatedly - the key question over the coming weeks will be whether it can base in the low-to-mid $40s.

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Let’s take a few minutes to recap last week and then walk through a plan for the week ahead.

Market Recap

Last week was a choppy and uneventful one overall. The S&P 500 closed essentially flat, and the NASDAQ also finished flat, slightly red by the end of the week.

For today’s analysis, I’ll be referencing S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures rather than SPY and QQQ. With the new tariff announcements from Donald Trump over the weekend, futures are giving us the most up-to-date look at how markets are reacting.

Sectors & Industries

On the sector side, leadership last week came from:

• Real Estate

• Consumer Staples

• Industrials

• Energy

On the weaker side, we saw:

• Communications

• Financials

Looking at industries, there was a lot more movement:

• Leaders:

  • Metals & Mining

  • Clean Energy

  • Gold Miners

  • REITs

  • Agriculture

  • Solar

  • Semiconductors

• Laggards:

  • Software (still notably weak year-to-date)

Zooming out a bit, when we look at year-to-date leadership, the strongest industries continue to be:

• Uranium

• Semiconductor Equipment

• Silver & Metals

• Copper

• Mortgage Finance

• Lumber & Wood

• Coal

• Aluminum

• Aerospace & Defense

As I always say, leading industries are where you want to focus if you’re trying to be a successful swing or position trader. That’s where the money is flowing.

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This company isn’t sexy. It’s not the stock people brag about at parties. For most of the last decade, owning this Company meant watching everyone else make money while you sat there holding dead weight. I get why people have written it off.

But something shifted. And I want to walk you through what I’m seeing, because I think most people are still looking at the old Intel while the new Intel is quietly taking shape.

Intel Corporation (INTC)

Intel’s been catching attention since August 2025, and for once, it’s been the right kind. The kind that makes an investor stop and think - I should be in this.

Here’s what got me: In August 2025, Intel’s stock was sitting at the same level it was in 2013. Twelve years of nothing. But sometimes that’s exactly when you want to pay attention. The comeback story here is worth understanding.

For me to get interested in a company as a long-term hold, it needs to check a few boxes:

1. Fundamentals that make sense - not hype, not hope, actual numbers moving in the right direction

2. Future potential - a real growth story that justifies higher prices down the road

3. A clean technical entry - because even good companies can be bad buys at the wrong price

On the technical side: I’d been watching Intel for a long time. Waiting. The stock had this long-term resistance line going back to 2021 that it couldn’t break through. In December, it finally did. That’s when I added it to my long-term portfolio - late December, high $30s.

This article is the “why” behind that decision. What I like fundamentally, where I see the future potential, and what finally aligned on the chart to make me a buyer.

Quick note before we dive in: My last deep-dive was on Alibaba — if you haven’t read it yet, the link’s are below. I’ve also put together a full 2026 Market Outlook — we’re talking broader market trends, crypto, and almost 100 individual stocks across sectors and themes. If you want to know what I’m watching this year, that’s the one.

Let’s get into Intel.

The Setup That Got My Attention

Picture this scenario: America wakes up and realizes that nearly 90% of cutting-edge semiconductor manufacturing happens in Asia. The majority of that happens in Taiwan. And Taiwan has a very large neighbor who’s made no secret about their intentions.

That’s not some theoretical risk. That’s the reality.

So what happens? The U.S. government looks around and asks: “Who can actually manufacture advanced chips on American soil?”

And the answer is basically... Intel. That’s it. They’re the only ones with the infrastructure, the expertise, and the facilities to even attempt it.

In August 2025, the government didn’t just hand Intel a grant. They bought in.

433.3 million shares at $20.47 per share. 9.9% stake. The United States government is now Intel’s largest shareholder.

Here’s the breakdown:

• $2.2 billion already paid out in CHIPS grants

• $5.7 billion from remaining unpaid CHIPS grants converted to equity

• $3.2 billion from Secure Enclave program converted to equity

• Total: $11.1 billion

But here’s what most people missed: They also got a 5-year warrant to buy another 5% of Intel at $20/share. Catch is, they can only exercise it if Intel tries to sell or spin off more than 49% of the foundry business. That’s not a handout. That’s a structure with protection built in.

The stake is passive - no board seats, no governance rights, they vote with management. They took the upside without taking over operations.

And they eliminated the claw-back provisions from the original $2.2B to “create permanency of capital.” Translation: they’re committed.

Then NVIDIA drops $5 billion. SoftBank adds $2 billion.

When the government AND your competitors are investing in you, that’s not noise. That’s conviction.

For context: Intel’s dumped $187 billion into U.S. expansion over five years. $108 billion in capital, $79 billion in R&D. The government’s $11.1B isn’t replacing that - it’s the catalyst on top of existing infrastructure.

January 5th Changed Things

CES 2026. Intel announces Panther Lake - their first chips manufactured on the 18A process node.

This is the technology they’ve been promising forever. And it’s not “coming soon” anymore.

Laptops ship January 27th. Over 200 design wins from partners.

Performance:

• 77% faster gaming vs. previous gen

• 60% better multi-threaded

Dell advertises 27-hour battery on XPS, 40 hours video.

Dell revived their premium XPS branding specifically for these chips - they’d killed it in 2025. That’s OEM confidence you can measure.

This isn’t a press release. Product hits shelves this month.

Earnings:

Who’s Actually Signed Up

• Microsoft: 18A Maia AI accelerators

• AWS: Trainium3 committed

• NVIDIA: $5B packaging collab

• Tesla: Dojo 3 packaging - Musk open to “discussions”

• DoD: $3.2B Secure Enclave

• Apple? Reportedly eyeing 2027 M-series

What Intel Foundry Actually Is

Most people still think of Intel as a chip company: design chips, build chips, sell chips.

The new Intel is trying to be different. They’re opening their fabs to outside customers, aiming to manufacture chips designed by other companies. Some early partnerships and design engagements are already underway.

That’s Intel Foundry Services. Instead of only making Intel-branded products, they’re positioning themselves as a manufacturing partner for companies that want advanced chips built on U.S. soil.

Why does this matter? Because once customers commit to a foundry process, switching later is expensive and time-consuming. These aren’t simple purchase orders - they involve deep engineering integration that can last for years. And for advanced-node manufacturing at scale inside the U.S., Intel is one of the few real options.

Why These Customers Stick

When you design a chip for a specific foundry process, you’re locked in. Re-qualifying a design for a different fab takes 12-18 months and millions in engineering costs. You don’t just switch because you feel like it.

DoD contracts legally require domestic manufacturing. Once Intel’s in, competitors can’t even bid. That’s $3.2 billion in revenue that isn’t going anywhere.

These aren’t purchase orders. They’re multi-year commitments where the switching costs are high enough that you don’t move unless something goes catastrophically wrong.

The Tech Edge (Simple)

Intel’s 18A node is one of the first leading-edge processes to introduce backside power delivery (PowerVia), a structural change that can improve performance, power efficiency, and routing density.

Comparable technologies from other foundries are on later timelines. That gives Intel a potential window where its process architecture is meaningfully differentiated.

The open question isn’t whether Intel has innovation - it’s whether they can execute, scale yields, and deliver consistently enough to convert that technical edge into durable market share.

The Valuation Gap

• TSMC: $1.4 trillion market cap

• Intel: $200 billion market cap

TSMC’s in Taiwan = geopolitical risk gets priced in eventually.

Intel’s domestic = potential for that risk premium to flip the other direction.

What Could Go Wrong

Execution risk is real. Yields could stall. Competitors could close the gap. Some design wins may never convert into meaningful production volume.

Intel’s history makes that skepticism reasonable.

But there’s an important difference this time: the U.S. government now has a direct financial and strategic interest in Intel’s success, alongside its role in national semiconductor capacity. That doesn’t guarantee execution - but it does materially change the incentive structure.

This is no longer just a turnaround story. It’s a strategic asset story.

That's why any pullback into the high 30s to 42 would be interesting to me.

Where I’m At

I already have a position from late December. I'd be comfortable adding on meaningful weakness.

Even a return to prior trading ranges would represent a strong risk-reward. And I believe the upside potential extends well beyond that if execution continues to improve.

This isn’t a sure thing - nothing is. But the setup is asymmetrical. The downside is visible. The upside, if the strategy works, is materially larger. The risk to reward ratio is too good to pass up.

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This took 20+ hours to put together. If it saved you time or gave you a new perspective, share it with someone who’d benefit.

Drop a comment — what company should I deep-dive next?

Disclaimer: I hold a position in INTC. This is not financial advice — it's my personal research and opinion. I could be completely wrong. By reading this analysis, you acknowledge and accept that: (1) all investment decisions are solely your own, (2) you assume full responsibility for any gains or losses, and (3) the author is not liable for any financial outcomes resulting from actions taken based on this content. Always do your own due diligence.

January 14, 2026

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Alibaba’s sitting at $171 with a $410 billion market cap. The market treats it like a beaten-down Chinese e-commerce play bogged down by regulations and rivals. The optimistic view? It’s shifting from retail king to AI infrastructure powerhouse. Reality’s probably in the middle, and that’s why it’s trading at a steep discount to peers worldwide.

Writing as of January 14, 2026, with Q3 FY2026 earnings expected in February:

This is a risky turnaround play, not a slam dunk. FY2026 earnings are declining as Alibaba commits RMB 380B (~$53B) over three years to AI and cloud infrastructure (primarily capex, some R&D) with no guaranteed payoff yet. If they nail the cloud scale-up and stabilize commerce, the stock could double. But if AI spending becomes a money pit and competition keeps grinding margins, it stays stuck at 10x earnings forever. You’re wagering on management’s ability to execute amid Pinduoduo battles, regulatory uncertainty, and economic headwinds. Keep your position small - 3-5% maximum.

Analysts mostly say Strong Buy, with average targets around $195-205 (15-20% upside). Some go as high as $258, which could mean 40%+ if AI clicks. This is a 3-5 year hold, not something to flip quick.

A Quick Note: I published a comprehensive 2026 Market Outlook covering nearly 100 stocks I'm tracking for 2026 - My comments on the Broader Stock & Crypto market, Dip buying zones for 20 stocks, sector breakdowns, technical setups, and thematic plays across AI, robotics and more. It's available at a very accessible price point for readers who want the full playbook.

This Alibaba report is free for everyone- your shares and feedback are how you support independent research like this. I'll be publishing my next company deep-dive soon. Stay tuned.

What Alibaba Actually Does

Started in 1999, Alibaba operates two core businesses that management has explicitly prioritized:

• E-commerce (Taobao/Tmall): China’s top marketplace where sellers pay for ads, tools, and shipping. In the six months to September 30, 2025, it pulled in RMB 272.7B - about 55% of total revenue. Over a billion users, holding roughly 40% market share, but getting hammered by Pinduoduo and Douyin.

• Cloud Intelligence (Alibaba Cloud): Infrastructure, platform services, and AI-driven products. RMB 73.2B in H1 FY2026 (~15% of revenue), growing 30% year-over-year with triple-digit growth in AI workloads. Third-largest cloud provider globally and the dominant leader in China.

• International E-Commerce: AliExpress, Lazada, Trendyol expanding into Southeast Asia, Turkey, and Latin America. RMB 69.5B (~14% of revenue).

• Everything Else: Cainiao logistics, Amap navigation, DingTalk collaboration, Freshippo retail, media (Youku). RMB 121.6B (~25% of revenue).

• Total H1 FY2026 revenue: RMB 495.4B.

• The shift is underway - e-commerce is being squeezed while cloud accelerates. The question is whether cloud grows fast and profitably enough to offset commerce margin erosion.

Why Alibaba Has a Moat (And Why It’s Under Fire)

Alibaba’s competitive advantage stems from three interlocking systems:

Network effects in commerce: More merchants → better selection → more buyers → more merchants. Ad marketplace dynamics amplify this as merchants bid for traffic. But Pinduoduo cracked the code with aggressive subsidies and gamification, stealing share in lower-tier cities.

Integrated ecosystem: Payments (Ant Group stake), logistics (Cainiao with robotics), and fulfillment create high switching costs. But JD and Meituan have built competing integrated stacks, so this moat isn’t unbreachable.

Cloud defensibility: Local regulatory compliance, enterprise relationships, and massive data center footprint block foreign competitors in China where data sovereignty matters. Qwen AI models have exceeded 700 million downloads as of January 2026, leveraging commerce data in ways rivals cannot replicate. This is the strongest moat, but the smallest revenue segment.​

Domestic commerce share holds at ~40%, but at the cost of massive subsidies crushing profitability. Can cloud grow fast enough to fill the gap? That’s the bet.

The Financials (GAAP Numbers)

Trailing Twelve Months (March 2025):

• Revenue: $137.3B

• Net Income: $17.8B

• Diluted EPS (GAAP): $7.38

• EBITDA: $26.1B

• Gross Margin: 40.0%

• Cash: $80.6B (RMB 573.9B)

• Debt: ~$25B (manageable)

Q2 FY2026 (ended September 30, 2025):

• Revenue: $34.8B (beat estimates)

• Cloud: +34% YoY (strongest segment)

• China commerce revenue: +12% YoY

• China commerce adjusted EBITA: -47% (heavy subsidies)​

Capital Returns H1 FY2026:

• Dividends: RMB 33.6B

• Share repurchases: RMB 7.6B​

• Current dividend yield: ~2.3%

Management is aggressively buying back shares, reducing share count from 2,415M (March 2025) to a projected 2,130M by 2028E - an 11.8% reduction that significantly boosts EPS.

Earnings Trajectory: The Problem Year Is FY2026

Here’s what consensus expects, and it’s rough in the near term:

The honesty moment: Earnings drop 19% in FY2026 before recovering - if they recover. This is real deterioration, not accounting noise.

Why? Alibaba is spending RMB 380B (~$53B) over three years on AI and cloud infrastructure while simultaneously subsidizing quick commerce to defend against Pinduoduo. Both are bets with uncertain payoffs.​

Bull case: Classic J-curve investing. Take the pain now, cloud monetizes by FY2027, earnings inflect sharply higher.

Bear case: Falling knife. Cloud never reaches profitable scale, commerce stays pressured, margins compress permanently.

The market finds out in 12-18 months.

Why Alibaba Over Competitors (And Why That’s Debatable)

Vs. JD.com: JD’s self-operated logistics model delivers stable 3-4% net margins for electronics and appliances. Alibaba’s marketplace should have better economics, but requires constant merchant tool investment.​

Vs. Pinduoduo (PDD): PDD dominates budget-conscious cities with gamification and speed, achieving 25%+ operating margins. Alibaba fights back with subsidies, which crashed commerce EBITA by 47%.​

Alibaba’s Multimodal AI Advantage: Beyond the subsidy battle, Alibaba has a technological edge competitors haven’t matched yet. Traditional e-commerce recommendation engines rely solely on purchase history, creating “cold start” problems for new products with no sales data. Alibaba’s new multimodal AI analyzes product images and text descriptions to understand intrinsic qualities - recommending a new restaurant based on food photography or connecting niche culinary interests to dishes users have never tried. This solves two strategic problems: accelerating new product launches and unlocking long-tail niche markets. During Singles’ Day 2025, this system drove measurable increases in orders and GMV. Pinduoduo and JD still rely on simpler behavioral models - this gap matters as AI-driven commerce scales.

Vs. Tencent/Baidu in AI/Cloud: Tencent leverages WeChat distribution (~30% operating margins). Baidu has search heritage and early AI models (~15% operating margins). Alibaba differentiates via enterprise cloud scale and commerce data, currently at 9% cloud operating margins with potential to reach 15-20% at scale.​

Alibaba’s cloud infrastructure depth is the key differentiator. But commerce faces heavier competitive pressure than peers.

Catalysts: China’s AI Push (Real, But Execution-Dependent)

China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) emphasizes AI, semiconductors, and digital transformation. The government is shifting from crackdowns to support.​

Key tailwinds:

• Stimulus: ~$42B front-loaded for strategic initiatives, 4% fiscal deficit targeting consumption

• Rate cuts: PBOC cutting policy rates toward 1.20%, reducing borrowing costs

• AI+ Manufacturing: Target of 70% factory AI adoption by 2028, with Alibaba Cloud positioned as infrastructure backboneAlibaba’s cloud depth is the differentiator. But commerce pressure is heavier than peers’.Catalysts: China’s AI Push (Real, But Execution-Dependent)China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) pushes AI, chips, and digital shifts. Government’s easing up on crackdowns. Key boosts:

• Stimulus: ~$42B upfront for big projects, 4% deficit aimed at spending.

• Rate cuts: PBOC dropping rates to 1.20%, cutting borrow costs.

• AI+ Manufacturing: 70% factory AI by 2028. Alibaba Cloud fits as the backbone.

These macro tailwinds are real, but Alibaba must execute to capture them. Policy support doesn’t guarantee market share.

AI Monetization Already Happening: During Singles' Day 2025 (November 12), Alibaba deployed over 10 million CPU cores and a 10,000-GPU cluster to power Qwen-driven product translation, customer service, and recommendations at massive scale. The company reported double-digit improvements in search result relevance and click-through rates for AI-powered recommendations. This isn't theoretical AI spending - it's revenue-generating infrastructure driving commerce GMV today, not in FY2027.

Risks (What Could Wreck This)

Regulation: Antitrust enforcement, data sovereignty rules, “common prosperity” interventions. January 2026 antitrust probes into food delivery platforms show scrutiny continues. The VIE structure (shareholders own a shell company, not actual Chinese operations) could be challenged by either U.S. or Chinese authorities.​

Competition/Margin Erosion: Pinduoduo, JD, Douyin, and Meituan are taking share. Alibaba defends with subsidies - commerce EBITA down 47%. If this becomes permanent, margins never recover.​

Cloud Execution Risk & Scale Disadvantage: Alibaba’s $53B AI infrastructure commitment over three years sounds massive for China, but context matters. Chinese hyperscalers (Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, ByteDance) combined spent $124B from 2023-2025. US hyperscalers spent $694B over the same period - 82% more. The Magnificent Seven alone deployed over $100B in Q4 2025, more than all of China’s AI infrastructure spend in a year.

If cloud growth slows to mid-teens or margins stay below 10%, Alibaba’s capex becomes a sunk cost. Worse, if US players achieve 3-5x compute scale advantages through superior capital deployment, Alibaba’s cloud competitiveness narrows to China-only markets, capping international growth and limiting the re-rating potential. The company is betting $53B that enterprise customers adopt Alibaba Cloud at profitable margins - but they’re doing it while competitors outspend them 5:1 globally.

Macro Weakness: China GDP slowing to 4.3-4.8%, weak consumer spending, property market stress - all pressure discretionary e-commerce.​

⚠️ Worst-Case Scenario

You buy “cheap” at 13x P/E, but it’s a value trap. Commerce ex-growth, cloud fails to scale profitably, margins compress. Stock deserves 10x permanently = $140-$160 (18% downside from current). Earnings stagnate, capital returns stop. Dead money for 5+ years.

Valuation: Cheap for a Reason, or Mispriced?

At $171, Alibaba trades at:

• 23x FY2025 earnings (trailing)

• 27x FY2026E earnings (because earnings are falling)

• 18x FY2027E earnings (if recovery materializes)

• 13x normalized longer-term

Amazon trades at 30x forward. Tencent at 25x. The market prices Alibaba as if cloud doesn’t matter and commerce is permanently ex-growth.​

Alibaba's revenue grew **1,207%** from FY2015 to FY2025 (28% CAGR), but the stock returned only **124%** over the same period - a 90% underperformance driven by regulatory fear, not fundamentals. From FY2021 to FY2024, revenue climbed 44% while the stock crashed 50% during antitrust crackdowns and delisting scares.

If the stock had tracked revenue growth historically (as it did from FY2015-FY2021), shares would trade at $500-700 today instead of $171. The current price reflects a permanent "China risk discount" that assumes regulatory pressure, competition, and macro weakness are structural rather than cyclical.

Bull case: Cloud reaches 20%+ operating margins by FY2027, commerce stabilizes, stock re-rates to 20x earnings. Target: $190-$240

Bear case: Cloud stays at 9% margins, commerce requires permanent subsidies, stock deserves 12x earnings. Target: $140-$160 (downside risk)

Base case: Middle ground. Cloud grows but margins disappoint, commerce stabilizes without growth. Target: $180-$200 in 3 years (10-15% annualized return)

Win Scenario vs. Wrong Signals

You win if:

• Cloud sustains 25%+ growth with margins expanding toward 15-20%

• Commerce EBITA turns positive by FY2027 (subsidies reduce)

• Capital returns stay above $10B annually

• Stock reaches $200+ in 2-3 years

You’re wrong if:

• Cloud growth decelerates to mid-teens within 12 months

• Commerce requires permanent subsidies to maintain 35-40% share

• New regulatory cycle caps monetization or forces divestitures

• FY2027 earnings miss estimates, proving FY2026 wasn’t investment but a trend

My Take

Alibaba is mispriced, but the risks are real. At 18x FY2027 earnings with $80B cash, cloud growing 30%, and government AI support, there’s upside asymmetry. But you’re buying into a year of declining earnings and hoping management’s $53B AI bet pays off.

This isn’t Amazon in 2015 reinvesting in AWS. It’s a mature company trying to rebuild growth while defending a core business under siege. That’s harder.

The chart shows gross margins stuck at 40%, not expanding. Operating leverage is modest. The FY2026 earnings dip is real, not just an accounting artifact. If you buy today, you need conviction that cloud becomes a high-margin business by FY2027 and that commerce stabilizes without permanent subsidies.

Technical take:

I’ve been tracking Alibaba since late 2024, and the chart’s been telling a pretty clear story. A rounding bottom pattern formed through 2021 - 2024, broke out in September 2024, then gave us a solid dip-buying opportunity around $80. From there, it ran to $140, pulled back, then pushed all the way to $190 before consolidating.

The move from $80 to $190 retraced about 50% on the Fibonacci scale - textbook healthy pullback. Recently, price consolidated back into the dip zone around $150, which is where I initiated my position.

From a technical standpoint, the structure’s holding. We’re seeing higher lows and higher highs, which is exactly what you want in an uptrend. If this pattern continues, the next technical targets sit around $226, with extended upside toward $264 if momentum holds above that level.

This isn’t a “buy and hope” setup - it’s a defined risk entry with clear levels. The technical structure aligns with the fundamental thesis: sentiment is improving, and the chart’s been reflecting that shift before earnings fully inflect.

This is not a core holding. It’s a 3-5% position for investors who can stomach China risk and earnings volatility.

Next catalyst: Q3 FY2026 earnings in February 2026. Watch for cloud growth sustainability and commerce subsidy trajectory.

Thanks for reading.

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Disclosure & Disclaimer

This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. All references to “buy zones,” “targets,” or “conviction” reflect the author’s personal opinions, not financial advice.​

The author may hold positions in Alibaba (BABA) and is under no obligation to disclose holdings or changes. This report may be updated without notice as new information becomes available.

Risk Warning: Alibaba operates in China and faces significant regulatory, geopolitical, and VIE structure risks.

You are solely responsible for evaluating any investment decision based on your financial situation, objectives, and risk tolerance. Consult a qualified financial advisor before acting on this information.

The author makes no guarantees regarding accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of information provided. By reading this report, you acknowledge the author assumes no liability for any financial losses or consequences from using this information. All content is copyrighted and may not be reproduced without written consent.

Data Sources: Alibaba investor relations, consensus analyst estimates, third-party platforms (as of January 14, 2026)